![]() ![]() Recording outcomes as 1 (home run) and 0 (no home run), here are the outcomes of the 470 at-bats for Mike Trout in the 2019 season: The 2019 season was special for home run hitting (a record 6776 home runs were hit) and so we collect home run outcomes for individual at-bats for all players who had at least 300 AB that season. We compare the observed ofers from hitting data for one season with the ofer patterns from the simulated data. We propose a simple model for home run hitting of many players, simulate data from this model and look for long ofers from this random data. After seeing some interesting patterns, we consider patterns from random hitting data. In this post, we explore the patterns of ofers for all hitters in a specific baseball season. For example, the longest ofer among a group of players will certainly be longer than the longest ofer of one player of interest. After all, we are looking at the hitting outcomes for many players and these long ofers may just be the result of natural random variation. Shifting over to baseball, it is possible that these observed long ofers have no meaning. But that doesn’t mean that the tennis spin process is crooked - it is very possible to lose the spin four times in a row even when the spin process is random and fair. My tennis friend noticed today that he lost the tennis spin (guessing incorrectly the outcome of spinning the racquet to determine who serves first) four consecutive times. ![]() These ofers may get the manager’s attention and the hitter may be benched or placed lower in the batter lineup.įinding these long ofers is interesting, but it is unclear that they have any meaning. The implication from these statements of ofers is that the particular hitters are struggling at the plate. Likewise, a power hitter may not hit a home run in a period during the season (like Pujols) and have a 0 for 100 slump - he has not hit in a home run in 100 consecutive at-bats. A batter will be hitless in 30 consecutive AB, so he is in a 0 for 30 slump. In contrast, Pujols displayed several long gaps between home runs that exceeded 100 AB.Īs the baseball fan knows, the media makes a big deal out of so-called “ofers”. Aaron appeared to have a consistent pattern of hitting home runs. In that exploration, we looked at the spacings, the gaps (in at-bats) between consecutive home runs. In last week’s post we explored the home run hitting patterns of two great hitters, Hank Aaron and Albert Pujols. ![]()
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